Triangles: counted over ten years
Ascending triangle
| Instrument | Found | Counted | Hit | Miss | Undecided | Hit share | Average result, ATR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| HDFC Bank | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | -1.12 |
| ICICI Bank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Infosys | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +2.14 |
| Tata Consultancy Services | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| State Bank of India | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| ITC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Larsen & Toubro | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | +2.11 |
| Axis Bank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Bharti Airtel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Nifty IT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| All instruments | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | +0.50 |
| Any session, same test, textbook direction up | 26729 | 10163 | 38.0% |
ascending triangle: the definition above applied to every occurrence the rule found. Shares are hits divided by counted.
Descending triangle
| Instrument | Found | Counted | Hit | Miss | Undecided | Hit share | Average result, ATR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -1.71 |
| HDFC Bank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| ICICI Bank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Infosys | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Tata Consultancy Services | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -1.05 |
| State Bank of India | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| ITC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Larsen & Toubro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Axis Bank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Bharti Airtel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Nifty IT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| All instruments | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | -1.38 |
| Any session, same test, textbook direction down | 26729 | 7432 | 27.8% |
descending triangle: the definition above applied to every occurrence the rule found. Shares are hits divided by counted.
- Up session (close above open), hollow
- Down session (close below open), filled
- Line of the figure
- Target level
- Cancel level
- Span of the figure
- Breakout close
The rule that found it
Rule AT-1: at least two pivot highs within 1 ATR of one another, 10 or more sessions apart, form a flat top; at least two pivot lows, each at least 0.5 ATR above the one before, form a rising base that starts at least 3 ATR below the top; the figure spans 20 to 90 sessions; price rose at least 3 ATR in the 40 sessions before the first touch; inside the figure no close is above the top plus 1 ATR or below the rising base; it counts as formed only when a session closes above the top within 25 sessions after the last touch.
Rule HIT-IN: a figure found by its written rule is counted at the close that completes it (for a candle model, the close of its last candle). From that close C, and the ATR of that session, the textbook direction follows from the figure: down for head and shoulders, double top, descending triangle and bearish engulfing; up for double bottom, ascending triangle and bullish engulfing. It is a hit if one of the next 20 sessions closes at least 2 ATR from C in that direction before any session has closed 1 ATR or more from C the other way. It is a miss if a close 1 ATR against comes first. If neither happens within 20 sessions it is undecided and counts as not a hit: it stays in the denominator. Only closes decide, never highs or lows. A figure with fewer than 20 sessions of history after it is left out and counted separately. The result of an occurrence is the distance from C to the close that decided it (or to the 20th close), in ATR, positive in the textbook direction.
- Up session (close above open), hollow
- Down session (close below open), filled
- Line of the figure
- Target level
- Cancel level
- Span of the figure
- Breakout close
The rule that found it
Rule AT-1: at least two pivot highs within 1 ATR of one another, 10 or more sessions apart, form a flat top; at least two pivot lows, each at least 0.5 ATR above the one before, form a rising base that starts at least 3 ATR below the top; the figure spans 20 to 90 sessions; price rose at least 3 ATR in the 40 sessions before the first touch; inside the figure no close is above the top plus 1 ATR or below the rising base; it counts as formed only when a session closes above the top within 25 sessions after the last touch.
Rule HIT-IN: a figure found by its written rule is counted at the close that completes it (for a candle model, the close of its last candle). From that close C, and the ATR of that session, the textbook direction follows from the figure: down for head and shoulders, double top, descending triangle and bearish engulfing; up for double bottom, ascending triangle and bullish engulfing. It is a hit if one of the next 20 sessions closes at least 2 ATR from C in that direction before any session has closed 1 ATR or more from C the other way. It is a miss if a close 1 ATR against comes first. If neither happens within 20 sessions it is undecided and counts as not a hit: it stays in the denominator. Only closes decide, never highs or lows. A figure with fewer than 20 sessions of history after it is left out and counted separately. The result of an occurrence is the distance from C to the close that decided it (or to the 20th close), in ATR, positive in the textbook direction.
The written rules found 4 ascending triangles and 2 descending triangles. Two of the ascending triangles were hits (2 of 4, 50.0 percent); neither descending triangle was (0 of 2). Only these two triangle rules are written; there is no rule for a symmetrical triangle, so none is counted.
Two triangles, two rules
Rule AT-1 finds an ascending triangle: at least two pivot highs within 1 ATR of one another and 10 or more sessions apart form a flat top; at least two pivot lows, each at least 0.5 ATR above the one before, form a rising base that starts at least 3 ATR below the top; the figure spans 20 to 90 sessions; price rose at least 3 ATR in the 40 sessions before the first touch; and inside the figure no close is above the top plus 1 ATR or below the rising base. It counts as formed only when a session closes above the top within 25 sessions after the last touch. Rule AT-2, the descending triangle, is the mirror: a flat bottom, falling highs, a prior fall, and a close below the bottom.
The hit is then judged from that completing close by the site's single definition: for the ascending triangle a close 2 ATR higher within 20 sessions before a close 1 ATR lower, for the descending the mirror.
What the counts say
Ascending triangles: four counted, two hits and two misses, 50.0 percent against 38.0 percent for the upward test from any session, average result +0.50 ATR. HDFC Bank gave two misses, Infosys one hit and Larsen & Toubro one hit. Descending triangles: two counted, both misses, one on Reliance Industries and one on TCS, average result -1.38 ATR against a yardstick of 27.8 percent.
Six triangles in ten years across 11 instruments is a small harvest. Half of four is an unremarkable share, and the descending pair does not support any statement about the pattern.
Small numbers jump
Every result in this table is worth 25 points for the ascending triangle and 50 for the descending. If the HDFC Bank pair had gone the other way, the ascending share would have read 100 percent; if the Infosys and Larsen & Toubro cases had missed, zero. The share is displayed with its count for that reason, and the count is what the reader should look at first.
A larger sample could come from more instruments or a longer history. This site holds ten years of daily bars for 11 instruments and counts what its rules find in them.
The two drawn examples
The charts show ascending triangles, since the descending ones are the rarer pair and the cleanest of each outcome came from the ascending rule. The hit is Infosys, completed on 25 May 2018 at 614.15 with an ATR of 10.88; on 13 June a close came 2.14 ATR above C. The miss is HDFC Bank, completed on 19 December 2017 at 471.12 with an ATR of 7.89; on 3 January 2018 a close 1.01 ATR below C cancelled it.
Both are real stretches of the stored series and both are counted in the table above.
At a glance
Read next
Questions about the count
How many triangles were found?
Four ascending and two descending, across the 11 instruments in ten years.
How many were hits?
Two of the four ascending triangles and none of the two descending triangles.
Is there a symmetrical triangle count?
No. This site has written rules for the ascending and the descending triangle only, so no symmetrical triangle is searched for or counted.
Why are the charts ascending triangles?
The page shows the cleanest hit and the cleanest miss among the figures found, and both came from the ascending rule.
Can six triangles say anything about the pattern?
Very little. One result is worth 25 points on four occurrences and 50 on two.
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